Commercial banks and currency kiosk bureaus provide exchange services throughout Ciudad Juarez. This study employs newspaper data to examine how the bank and kiosk sell-buy spreads are affected by border crossings, the bilateral peso per dollar exchange rate, and 90-day Mexico - U.S. treasury yield differentials. Sample data are from January 2009 through June 2016. Parameter estimation is carried out using a GLS ARMAX procedure. Empirical results indicate that bank spreads increase as the peso weakens. Exchange bureau spreads decrease as cross-border traffic flows increase. Currency kiosk spreads tend to widen as 90-day yield gaps become larger.

This study analyzes Texas state and metropolitan economic downturn predictability.Publicly available Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas dynamic factor business cycle indices are used in the analysis.Sample data cover Texas and nine of its largest metropolitan economies from January 1991 through May 2018.Dynamic autoregressive probit downturn models are estimated using the United States yield spread plus other regional and macroeconomic variables.Predictive accuracy is analyzed using in-sample model simulations.Results indicate that narrowing yield spreads, real peso appreciation, and oil price declines are generally found to increase recession likelihoods.Varying lag structures and equation specifications indicate that the state and metropolitan economies exhibit distinct timing patterns and follow different paths and each has an individual business cycle.Good predictive properties are also documented for the equations.56

Research examining small commercial and industrial electricity usage patterns have historically received less attention than residential electricity consumption patterns. This study examines electricity as an input to small firm commercial and industrial (CIS) production in Las Cruces, the second largest metropolitan economy in the state of New Mexico, using annual frequency data from 1978 to 2018. Those data include labor, per capita personal income, price measures for electricity and natural gas, and weather variables. The long-run and short-run elasticities of the data are then estimated using an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). In the long-run, the CIS derived-demand curve is found to be upward sloping, and Las Cruces CIS customers use natural gas as a complementary input. Real per capita income is also found to have a positive impact in the long-run, while weather impacts are found to be ambiguous. In the short-run, the Las Cruces CIS derived-demand curve is downward sloping, CIS customers use natural gas as a substitute factor, and weather extremes are found to be positively correlated with small firm electricity usage.

Most econometric analyses of cross-border traffic flows from Mexico have been conducted for the larger metropolitan economies along the international boundary. With the advent of the USMCA trade agreement, plus physical infrastructure bottlenecks at many ports of entry, ports of entry in smaller cities and towns are likely to play more important roles in expediting cross-border merchandise trade. To date, however, there has been very little formal analyses of the trade flows through many of these other, potentially key ports. This study attempts to partially fill part of that gap in the border economics literature by analyzing northbound cargo vehicle flows from Mexico to the United States through Ojinaga, Chihuahua and Presidio, Texas. Results indicate that the price of diesel fuel, United States business cycles, export manufacturing employment in Chihuahua City, and the inflation adjusted bilateral currency value of the peso influence the monthly volume of cargo trucks that use this border crossing facility.

To examine housing price dynamics for Las Cruces, New Mexico, a theoretical model is developed that takes into account the supply and demand sides. The employed ARDL estimation methodology allows for more realistic modeling of market dynamics than prior studies of this residential real estate market, the second largest in New Mexico. A slightly larger sample size is also utilized. The results obtained corroborate evidence reported in several previous housing studies. Some unexpected outcomes also indicate that consistently reliable interlinkages between housing prices and explanatory variables may be elusive. Among the latter, an inverse relationship between apartment rents and single-family housing prices is most surprising but may be a consequence of the large university and college student population in Las Cruces. As post-secondary enrollments increase, so too do faculty numbers, allowing both housing prices and apartment rents to increase simultaneously. That implies that apartments and single-unit houses may be complements rather than substitutes in college towns like Las Cruces. Additional research using data for other small- and medium-sized urban economies would be helpful. © 2022 AESS Publications. All Rights Reserved.

Economic stress indices are beginning to be developed as gauges of business cycle conditions for regional economies. Although the popularity of these metrics is increasing, there have been only a small number of studies that analyze the effectiveness of these tools for monitoring regional economic developments. This effort employs data for one such index that is maintained by the University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project. The sample period covers December 2002 through March 2019. Specific components of the index include inflation, unemployment, and housing prices. Estimation results indicate that the effects of any changes in economic stress levels may take approximately 16 months to be fully experienced within the El Paso retail sector. Simulation results indicate that a one-time, 1-point increase in economic stress leads to a $2.987 million decrease in monthly retail sales.

Virtual cross-border medical tourism allows many residents in the United States to purchase brand name medicines from companies in Mexico without travelling there. Monthly economic reports indicate that the online brand name pharmaceutical product prices in Mexico are noticeably lower than the corresponding internet prices in the United States. There have been very few econometric studies on how these prices are linked and the dynamic nature of those relationships. Results in this study indicate that online medicine prices in Mexico respond very rapidly to online prices changes in the high-price market.

Staffing classrooms with effective teachers remains a persistent policy challenge in the U.S. Teaching positions requiringSTEM expertise are particularly difficult to fill. Scholars have identified similar trends in other industrialized nations. Yet, limited research examines international comparisons of the causes and consequences of staffing challenges. We use the 2015 Trends in Mathematics and Science Study to track teacher staffing difficulties in 27 countries. We find substantial variation across countries in the proportion of principals reporting difficulties filling STEM positions, with U.S. schools mirroring international averages. We also find consistent relationships between lower math and science achievement and attending a hard-to-staff school.

Purpose: Principals are critical to school improvement and play a vital role in creating inclusive and high-performing schools. Yet, approximately one in five principals leave their school each year, and turnover is higher in schools that serve low-income students of color. Relatedly, high rates of teacher turnover exacerbate challenges associated with unstable learning environments. Our study examines the extent to which principal turnover influences teacher turnover. We build on past work by exploring how the relationship between teacher and principal turnover differs in urban, high-poverty settings and by examining the effects of chronic principal turnover. Research Methods/Approach: We draw on a student- and employee-level statewide longitudinal dataset from Texas that includes all public K-12 schools from school years 1999–2000 to 2016–17. We estimate teacher-level models with school fixed effects, allowing us to compare teacher turnover in schools leading up to and immediately following a principal exit, to otherwise similar schools that do not experience principal turnover. Findings: Teacher turnover spikes in schools experiencing leadership turnover, and these effects are greater among high-poverty and urban schools, in schools with low average teacher experience, and in schools experiencing chronic principal turnover. Implications: Improving leadership stability, especially in urban schools experiencing chronic principal turnover may be an effective approach to reducing teacher turnover. Principal and teacher turnover and their relationship with each other requires further investigation. The field would benefit from qualitative research that can provide important insights into the individual decisions and organizational processes that contribute to principal turnover.

Panel regression analysis is used to examine the impact of trade clusters on transportation costs along the southern border of the United States. CIF/FOB ratios are utilized as the transportation cost measures. Grubel-Lloyd and Herfindahl-Hirschman indexes are utilized to identify trade clusters in the sample. Data are assembled for four customs districts (El Paso, Laredo, Nogales, and San Diego) during a 20-year period between 1995 and 2015. Empirical results suggest that trade clusters are associated with reduced transportation costs. These results differ from those of the northern border of the United States, where trade clusters have higher transportation costs.